After a slight uptick during the first two years of the pandemic, global PC shipments continued to decline for the fourth straight quarter. The analyst firm’s latest IDC numbers are down 29% in the first quarter from the same period last year. Canalys paints a more worrisome picture for the industry, with a full 33% decline.
A disappointing 2022 holiday set the stage for a start to the year, as vendor inventory continued to build up — a trend expected to continue at least into the third quarter. The decline has been so steady that last quarter’s numbers fell below those recorded in the first quarter of 2019, putting global shipments below the pre-pandemic level.
“Although channel inventory has depleted in the past few months, it’s still well above the healthy four to six week range,” says IDC’s Jitesh Ubrani. “Even with deep discounts, channels and PC makers can expect to continue to have high inventory in the middle of the year and possibly into the third quarter.”
Image credits: canalis
culprits? For starters, a lot of people bought news systems in 2020 and 2021 as their business settings adjusted to a global pandemic. Laptops tend to have a lifespan of around three to five years. Desktops are even longer than three to eight. People are likely to be satisfied with their systems for at least a few years.
Assuming there is a cap on PC sales, the industry simply cannot sustain continuous growth. You can, of course, add ongoing economic problems to the list. When things look bad, people tend to refrain from purchasing expensive items. Laptops (a category that doesn’t include tablets) were the hardest hit, down 34% year-over-year, per Canalys. Desktops also suffered – but they were slightly better with a drop of 28%.
As sellers go, IDC and Canalys suffer Apple’s largest declines of 40.5 and 45.5%, respectively. That’s a staggering number, likely due – at least in part – to the company getting back on the ground, as the M1 chip has been able to beat larger category trends in 2021/22. This chip represents Apple’s biggest PC update since the company switched to Intel decades ago. Despite what the ad copy might suggest, you don’t get a generational shift every year.
Image credits: IDC
Apple is fourth on both lists, with Lenovo, HP, and Dell coming in first, second, and third, respectively, and Asus rounding out the top five. However, each manufacturer suffered with numbers ranging from an HP drop of 24.1% to 38.8 for Asus (Canalys).
Both companies see reason for cautious optimism heading into the end of the year and early next year. “By 2024, an outdated installed base will start to show up for updating,” says Lin Huang of IDC. “If the economy is heading higher by then, we expect a market rally as consumers look to update, schools seek to replace outdated Chromebooks, and businesses move to Windows 11. If major markets continue to slump into next year, a recovery could be in. cleft way.”